First, in echoing the Basic Principles of Russian Federation’s State Policy in the Domain of Deterrence, Putin provides a frame of reference for his thinking about nuclear weapon use. There are two reasons for drawing attention to Putin’s recent words. In short, the impulse to escalate in a tight corner could be strong.

In a local war with a non-nuclear adversary, however, the small-scale tactical use of nuclear weapons might be a serious temptation, especially if the war were not going according to plan. “Escalating to de-escalate” in a war with NATO would run the serious risk of escalation rather than de-escalation. The 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review ascribed to Russia the view that “the threat of nuclear escalation or even first use of nuclear weapons would serve to de-escalate a conflict on terms favorable to Russia.” Russian military theorists have certainly discussed this idea of “escalating to de-escalate,” though whether it is a part of Russian doctrine is disputed among students of Russian strategy. At the tactical level, however, the situation is different. This does not mean that Russia will use such weapons, and deterrence at the strategic level appears to be robust. The first is unsurprising: “The Russian Federation retains the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies…” But that sentence ends with an unusual statement: “… and also in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is put under threat”. In June 2020, Putin signed a decree-the Basic Principles of the Russian Federation’s State Policy in the Domain of Nuclear Deterrence -that specifies two conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons. It has to do with the circumstances under which Russia might use nuclear weapons. On February 24-the day Putin invaded Ukraine-he warned that Russia would respond immediately to those who stood in its way, with consequences that “will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.” On February 27, he publicly ordered his minister of defense and chief of the general staff to transfer Russia’s “deterrence forces” to “special combat readiness.” Putin’s aim was evidently to deter outside intervention and to signal Russia’s determination to achieve its goals.īut another, more troubling, aspect to Putin’s recent comments has received little or no attention.

On February 19, Vladimir Putin launched an exercise involving Russian strategic forces.

The risk of nuclear war casts a dark shadow over the already-tragic events in Ukraine.

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